Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, September 14th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to extend Friday afternoon’s sell-off that was fueled by Middle East news and inflation data. Stocks are showing early losses also with the Dow down 186 points and the Nasdaq down 259 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.99%), which with Friday’s late selling should cause an increase of approximately .500 - .750 of a discount point if compared to Friday’s early pricing. It is highly likely that you saw an intraday improvement in pricing before Friday’s close, so this morning’s change depends on the size of that revision.

7/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.99%

186

Dow

52,356

259

NASDAQ

26,073

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Iran War Headlines

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. Middle East headlines from the weekend has oil prices higher. The one metric that caused bond selling Friday at $105 per barrel is now at $109 per barrel. Rising oil costs fuel inflation across the economy, causing bonds to lose value and appeal with investors. Accordingly, bond yields and mortgage rates are higher this morning.

High

Unknown

None

The rest of the week has just a few pieces of relevant economic data scheduled, but one of them is a major release. In addition to the data, there is another Treasury auction along with the sixth FOMC meeting of the year that is likely to bring plenty of volatility to the markets. And of course. Oil prices and Middle East news may affect bond trading also.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow also lacks any relevant economic data for the markets to digest. There is a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place though that may affect rates during afternoon trading. If the sale is met with a strong demand from investors like last week’s long-term security sales were, bond prices may rise and mortgage rates could revise lower after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities may create selling in the broader bond market that leads to a slight upward revision to mortgage rates during afternoon trading tomorrow.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Overall, Wednesday is easily the most important day of the week since it has the most influential data (Retail Sales report) and the FOMC events. We may see rates move in the morning and again, at least once maybe more, during late afternoon hours that day. The calmest day for rates will probably be Friday. We are likely going to see plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week, so it would be prudent to keep an eye on them if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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