Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, August 17th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to extend Friday’s late weakness. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 115 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.70%), which with Friday’s afternoon selling should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .250 of a discount point higher than Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase late Friday, you should see a smaller increase this morning.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.70%

115

Dow

53,616

3

NASDAQ

26,732

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Iran War Headlines

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. We could attribute the slightly weak open in bonds to Middle East-related headlines, particularly President Trump’s threat to attack Oman as the 60-day window for a peace agreement with Iran comes to an end. As a sign the conflict could widen and push oil prices higher, this scenario would be bad news for bonds. This could be contributing to this morning’s increase in rates, but the truth is that most of that increase is a result of Friday’s late selling in bonds and not weekend headlines.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The remainder of the week has only three minor monthly economic reports scheduled. None of them carry a significance level anywhere close to last week’s inflation and consumer spending reports. In addition to the data, there is a Treasury auction and FOMC minutes release midweek and a handful of Fed speaking engagements. While the week should be calmer for rates than the past couple have been, we still could see a day or two with a noticeable change.

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

Activities will begin early tomorrow morning with the release of July's Housing Starts report at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us a little insight into the new home portion of the housing sector and future mortgage credit demand. This report rarely causes a noticeable move in mortgage rates. Analysts expect the report to show a decline in new home groundbreakings to point to more weakness in the sector. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market even though we are not expecting to see rates react to the data.

Medium

Unknown

Industrial Production

July's Industrial Production report that measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities is also coming tomorrow morning. The 9:15 AM ET posting is expected to show a 0.3% rise from June's level. A decline in production would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would signal manufacturing sector weakness. Broader economic growth is much more difficult when manufacturing activity is slipping.

---

Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as a clear choice for most important of the week since there is no highly important data scheduled for release. We are expecting to see minor revisions multiple days with little or no change in rates the other days. However, due to the current geopolitical environment and the ongoing conflicting news about the ability of shipping to move through Strait of Hormuz, we could see an unexpected headline cause a strong reaction in the markets and mortgage rates. Therefore, it would still be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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